Perspectivas en Siria

Varios analistas han salido a comentar las posibles consecuencias de los movimientos militares en torno a Siria de las últimas horas. Los que no son directamente apocalípticos, son francamente pesimistas. Acá van dos de estos últimos. La primera nota es de Andrei Akulov para el sitio web Strategic Culture Foundation. Acá va: 

Título: Saudi Arabia Deploys Forces to Turkey: Another Big Step in Bringing the World Closer to War

Texto: The complex, multi-sided war in Syria, raging since 2011, has drawn in most regional and global powers, caused the world’s worst humanitarian crisis and attracted recruits to Islamist militancy from around the world. Now it is turning for worse as military preparations in Turkey get underway.

Saudi Arabia is deploying fighter jets to the southern Turkish air base of Incirlik as the kingdom prepares to take part in an intensified campaign in Syria. About 20 Saudi jets have reportedly arrived at the base in Adana in southern Turkey.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu confirmed the Saudi aerial deployment on February 13, «Saudi Arabia declared its determination against Daesh [the Islamic State] by saying that they were ready to send both jets and troops».

Cavusoglu indicated that ground operations might also be pursued. The minister emphasized that no strategy for joint ground operations has yet been presented to the coalition. «If we have such a strategy, then Turkey and Saudi Arabia may launch an operation from the land», he said. Referring to criticism that Turkey has been «unwilling» to join the fight against the Islamic State, he said his government has been «pushing for more tangible suggestions».

Turkish television channels NTV and CNN Turk carried remarks by the minister suggesting that Turkey and Saudi Arabia see eye-to-eye on the need for ground operations in Syria.

Turkey’s commitment comes after Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said they would supply Special Forces troops as part of a force under the US-led coalition. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter appealed to coalition partners in Brussels to provide more resources.

US Special Operations forces are already operating in Syria.

If Saudi Arabia commits boots to the ground, it would be an exceptional move. It has had regular clashes with Yemen and contributed 3,000 troops during the 1973 Arab-Israeli Yom Kippur War. If the deployment of Saudi troops to Syria happens, it will mark the first time for Riyadh military to battle Sunni Muslim extremists – the forces it has been so often accused of supporting.

It was reported on February 13, that Turkish forces have been shelling Menagh air base, a former Syrian Air Force facility that Kurds seized from Islamist rebels just days ago, and three other positions between the airport and Turkish border.

Kurds report about the combat actions through their twitter accounts. «Can’t get more complicated. American ally (Turkey) shelling another American ally», one of the tweets reads.

In case of invasion, the Turks will come up against the YPG, the Syrian Kurdish group allied to the Turkish Kurds of the PKK, known as tough warriors. And they are the best fighters for the US to side with in the fight against the Islamic State. The United States has provided air cover for their operations. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has lashed the Obama administration for this, accusing Washington of helping to create a «sea of blood». Russia is also building close ties with Syria Kurds. On February 10, they opened a representation office in Moscow. Russia supported the idea of their participation in the Geneva talks on Syria.

The events unfold as NATO has just announced its intent to send warships to the Eastern Mediterranean to «close off a key access route» for migrants traveling by sea from Turkey to Greece to reach the heart of Europe.

According to Gordon Duff, senior editor of Veterans Today, a US online journal representing the position of members of the military and veteran community, Russian and Syrian jets are on standby to shoot down any Turkish or Saudi plane that crosses into Syria. Turkey is prepared to close the Bosporus and attack Russian ships in the Mediterranean.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned the US and Saudi Arabia against starting «permanent war» with ground intervention in Syria. «All sides must be compelled to sit at the negotiating table, instead of unleashing yet another war on Earth», Medvedev told German Handelsblatt newspaper. «Any kinds of land operations, as a rule, lead to a permanent war. Look at what’s happened in Afghanistan and a number of other countries. I am not even going to bring up poor Libya».

«The Americans and our Arab partners must think well: do they want a permanent war? Do they think they can really quickly win it? It is impossible, especially in the Arab world. Everyone is fighting against everyone there», Medvedev added.

Neither Riyadh nor Ankara appears to be happy about the looming prospects of peace in Syria.  They are frantically trying to redress the balance on the ground with the projected sending in of troops. The reports about the incoming invasion of Syria may tip a fine balance between fragile hopes for a ceasefire and the slide into the quagmire of bloody conflict at the time the US and Russia are working towards a nationwide cessation of hostilities in Syria, identifying areas under so-called terrorist control that would remain subject to air strikes. The deal agreed on February 12 is intended to pave the way for renewed peace talks in Geneva. Turkey and Saudi Arabia are trying to undermine the ongoing diplomatic efforts and pushing the main actors involved in the conflict towards war with unpredictable results. They are playing with fire. The US, the EU, and Russia – the main actors joined together must stop them before it is too late.

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La segunda nota es de Elijah J. Magnier y apareció en su sitio web https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/:

Título: The “Gates of hell” will be open in the coming months in Syria

Texto: A high-ranking officer within the joint operations room in Damascus, which includes Russia, Iran and Syria and Hezbollah said, “there are three possible scenarios in Syria: The first is the Arab ground troops would enter Syria from the Turkish borders, in the area under the so-called “Islamic State” group (ISIS) on the long front from Jarablus to Al-Ra’ee. This can be possible and quickly achievable if a kind of an agreement is reached between Turkey and ISIS. After all, the Jihadist group has to face either the Turkish-Arab forces – that could allow a possible exit – or the Russian-Iranian-Hezbollah forces where there will be no exit”.

“The second scenario is through the Jordanian borders East of Syria up to Raqqa. A longer road but would allow Saudi Arabia to bring its logistic and armoured support to push all the way to the ISIS-controlled land. In both scenarios, these troops, Arabs or Turkish-Arabs, would not clash or contact or even walk into the Russia-Damascus and allies military operational stage. The third scenario is that the Saudi are boosting the moral of the Jihadist so these don’t surrender easily and hold the ground for as long as possible”.

The source said: “Any scenario is linked to the will of the United States to be engaged in a war in Syria. This is exactly what the Saudi officials said. The U.S. is sending the Awacs aircraft because any U.S direct intervention on the ground is totally excluded. This could be the U.S. contribution, along the diplomatic effort in Geneva. Never the less, we build our military reaction based on the strong possibility that the Arab ground troops are most likely to invade Syria. These forces, under the title of defeating ISIS, won’t reach Raqqa overnight. Logistic support and troops movement from Jordan into Syria require between 3 to 4 months to be completed. These forces, in this case, are expected to advance from Jordan, into al-Badiyah and continue up north toward Raqqa, the northern Syrian city, as a possible scenario. Any potential contact with the Syrian forces could lead to a larger war”.

“We do not exclude the fact that Saudi Special Forces could act behind ISIS lines to guide airtrikes or carry small scale attacks. None the less, these forces cannot contribute to defeat ISIS but in directing specific targets. Any attack that could weaken ISIS is considered to our advantage. The U.S. led coalition can bomb ISIS any time but no ground troops would be welcome. Moreover, no jet is allowed to enter the Syrian space without prior coordination with Russia, otherwise it will be considered as a potential target. This is also another fact to consider. Therefore, no one is willing to see a large scale war, mainly President Obama who has avoided to be entangled in the Syrian war for the last two years”.

Russian Prime Minister Dimitry Medvedev said, “all parties should sit down at the negotiating table instead of causing an outbreak of a new world war”, rumbling the drum of war in Syria. The Russian warning came after the confirmation of a spokesman for the Saudi Defense minister Ahmad Asiri “the Saudi Kingdom has announced the establishment of the new Islamist alliance to fight terrorism and is ready to carry out air and ground operations within the international coalition led by the United States in Syria.”

“The aim of the Arab forces is to divide Syria is two parts: “Gharbistan” (western) and “Sharqistan”(Eastern) similar to what happened in Berlin after World War II. In the first part, the Syrian army will continue fighting al-Qaeda and its allies with the support of Russia. While in the second part, the Arabs would establish their forces to impose a political change and could destabilise the regime. In the meantime, the regime forces are at 60km from Raqqa, while, Turkey is at 180 km from ISIS main city. Therefore, if the idea to defeat ISIS is genuine, the U.S led coalition doesn’t need to intervene and walk all this distance from Turkey or Jordan to Raqqa. However, The race to Raqqa is declared, with the possibility or without the possibility of an Arab-Turkish intervention”.

According to the source “the gates of hell will be open in the next 3 months in Syria against al-Qaeda and its allies and also against ISIS. As agreed in Geneva between Russia and the United States, any cease-fire shall not include Jihadists and their allies. If Syrian opposition do not disengage from al-Qaeda, they are legitimate targets because they become united as one group and dealt with accordingly”.

Al-qaeda in Syria, known as Jabhat al-Nusra, is part of Jaish al-fateh, a coalition of many Syrian groups operating in northern Syria. Al-Qaeda and Jihadist movements are sending reinforcement to northern Aleppo in the last 48 hours, but used to maintain a strong presence around Nubbl and Zahraa, the two cities that Russia and its allies brock the siege imposed for over three and a half years. Al-Qaeda fighters pulled back toward the north of Aleppo fighting in Tal-Rifaat and others toward the south of Zahraa where they are fighting in Andan and Hay’yan.

According to the source, human and signal intelligence confirmed that “Saudi Arabia has asked Syrian opposition associated and not-associated with al-Qaeda not to waive any proposition in the Geneva negotiations and not to hand over any city in Syria without fighting. Time is crucial and Saudi Arabia will continue its military support to the opposition, waiting for a new U.S. to be elected. The battle is expected to be more intense where everybody is holding the ground which indicates that the war is still far form being over”