Tajikistán: una y una

Justo cuando parecía que Rusia reforzaba su frontera sur con las alianzas adecuadas, empiezan a pasar cosas raras. De golpe los talibanes miran pal norte. La casualidad permanente, que le dicen. Acá van dos noticias contrastantes al respecto. La primera la reprodujo hoy Russia Insider; acá va:

Título: Russia's Hardening of Its Southern Border All but Complete

Epígrafe: Between the CSTO alliance, the military presence in Tajikistan and the coming enlargement of Shanghai Cooperation Organization Russia has secured its “soft underbelly”

Texto: Russia plans to invite Iran, India and Pakistan into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This has been discussed for a very long time already, but this time it is official: Sergei Lavrov has just declared that at the next summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) countries Russia will propose to the initiate the process of accepting Iran a a full member alongside India and Pakistan.

Quick reminder: the following countries are currently member of the SCO: China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; the following countries are currently “observers” and, therefore, possible candidates: Afghanistan, India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan while Belarus, Sri Lanka and Turkey are “dialog partners”. The near-future SCO would thus include all of the following full members: China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tadjikistan and Uzbekistan.

[Sidebar: It is also important to remember that the SCO is a security organization with a strong military component to it. While its main goal is the coordination of members states in their struggle against terrorism, separatism and extremism, the SCO has conducted a number of military exercises.

The SCO is not a formal military alliance but it has at its core countries which are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) i.e., Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tadjikistan, and Uzbekistan. We could very roughly say that the SCO has a function similar to NATO while the CSTO has a function comparable to the one of the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE).

This comparison is not to be taken literally, but just as in Europe we can observe an economic alliance (the EU), a political security alliance (NATO) and a single purely military military command (SHAPE), so in Asia we see the Eurasian Economic Union (or EEU) being the economic alliance, SCO as a political security organization and the CSTO as a purely  military organization].

Needless to say, the White House is absolutely horrified by all this: not only did the US oppose the creation of the SCO, CSTO and EEU at every step of the way, but the consolidation of these organization is a vivid illustration of the loss of influence and power of the USA. The USA tried to stop it, lobbied hard to prevent anybody from joining it, and even tried to ignore it – and they failed: the SCO is growing in membership and influence.

To make things words, the BRICS states have now become and open amd direct challenge to the USA’s economic hegemony over our planet.  The folks in Washington are now very slowly becoming aware of the magnitude of the threat now faced by the Empire.

These developments also illustrate the dramatic contrast between US and Russian diplomatics methods and goals.  While the US favors the classical “divide and conquer” method, Russia favors a “unite and lead” method which is designed to bring former enemies together (like India and Pakistan or China and India) and build large coalitions.

The prospect of Iran joining the SCO is seen by Washington as an overt provocation, as slap in the face of the Emperor, especially at a time when the US and the KSA are at war in Yemen precisely to isolate and “contain” Iran (of course, “containing” Russia, China and Iran all at the same time was not a very smart plan to begin with!).

The US response is predictable: punish everybody involved with chaos. This time, it is tiny Macedonia which the object of US aggression (via the CIA-run UCK terrorists from Kosovo) with the deliberate desire to send everybody else the following message: side with Russia and you will pay, dearly.

There have also been warnings by Russian analysts about the risks of ISIS/IS training in Georgia or a resumption of the Chechen insurgency, but this time around, with direct Ukronazi support. Uncle Sam is apparently trying to hit Russia in her “soft underbelly”, but this plan has no chance of success because no such soft underbelly exists any more.

The myth of the soft underbelly of Russia

Amongst the many myths of old style geopolitics was the famous “soft underbelly of Russia”. To be fair, there was some truth to that, but not much. Nowadays, however, this is absolutely false.

In reality, the combined results of the two wars in Chechnia, the war against Georgia, the civil war in the Ukraine, the terrorist threat in Dagestan, the Wahabi insurgency in Tajikistan and the US-created chaos created in Iraq have all contributed to the definition and implementation of a long-term Russian policy to “armor her belly”.

The earliest manifestation of this policy was the decision to deploy the elite 201 Motor-Rifle division in Tadjikistan in direct support of the combined Russian-Tadjik border guard forces. Later, this division was re-named the 201st Base to reflect the unique capabilities of this unit. At the present time, subunits of this base are located in 3 Tajik cities and “cover” all the critical areas. The 201st is, by any standard, a formidable force, far superior to anything Tajikistan or Afghanistan could deploy.

But the Russians went one step further: the recently tested the ability of Russian Airborne forces to deploy within hours to Tajikistan: without any warning, elements of the 98th Airborne Division were put on alert and transported with all their equipment and weapons to southern Tajikistan.

This exercise was specifically conducted under the aegis of the rapid reaction forces of the CSTO and was designed to test the Russian ability to project her military power right to the Tajik-Afghan border.

Currently, the Russian security posture towards Afghanistan relies on the following layers: first, maintaining a good working relationship with the Tajik population of northern Afghanistan; next – strengthening the Tajik border guards and regular military forces by providing them with instructors and equipment; next deploying Russian border guard troops alongside their Tadjik colleagues; then, to maintain a powerful combat “fist” in the form of the 201 Base and, finally, to be ready to reinforce the 201st with Airborne Forces and aviation elements.  As a result, Russia is now capable of deploying an extremely powerful combat group within 48 hours anywhere in, or near, Tadjikistan.

Another example of the “armored underbelly of Russia” is the no-less formidable 58th Army which is located in and around Chechnia whose recent combat record includes defeating the Chechen Wahabis in 2000 and the Georgian military in 2008. The 58th Army is one of the best trained and best equipped army in the Russian armed forces. Now it can also count on the full support of the Chechen forces loyal to Ramzan Kadyrov which are beyond any doubt the most best trained and experienced forces in the Caucasus. Should the ISIS/IS crazies ever try to penetrate into the Caucasus (say, via Georgia) they would be met by an extremely powerful military force which would be superior to anything Syria or Iraq could deploy.

Finally, there is the Black Sea fleet which in the Soviet days was considered the least capable and, frankly, least important of the four Soviet Fleets (Northern, Pacific, Baltic and, last, Black Sea – in order of importance). Now, with the civil war in the Ukraine and after the war in Georgia, the Black Sea has re-acquired a new found importance, especially as “Crimea’s Fleet”. Russian officials have announced that they will greatly strengthen not only the group of forces in Crimea, but also the Black Sea Fleet.

The solution chosen by Russia was the creation in Crimea a separate “military grouping” comprising 96 formations and units and whose tasks will include not only the protection of Russian interests in the Black Sea and on the Crimean Federal District, but also to “meet the challenges in the long-range maritime zone.” In other words – power projection.

The Crimean “fortress”, the Black Sea Fleet, the 58th Army and the 201st Base are all part of a new, armored, Russian hard underbelly which is quite ready to deal with any threat coming from the south.

Conclusion

Over the past decades Russia has invested tremendous resources into the development of multi-dimensional policy towards the South and the East  On a political level, organizations such as the SCO, the CSTO and the BRICS are all forming a network of alliances which Russian can count on for support. On a military level, Russia has placed “military locks” her southern flank in the Black Sea, Caucasus and Central Asia and has developed the capabilities to send powerful reinforcements to these “locks”. In effect, Russia has created a “cordon sanitaire” to protect herself from the instability on her southern border. This combination of political and military measure have given Russia a great degree of flexibility in responding to any crisis or challenge.

***

La segunda nota fue escrita por Nikolai Bobkin para Strategic Culture Foundation. Acá va:

Título: War in Afghanistan Comes Close to Tajikistan Border

Texto: The Russian airborne forces redeployed earlier to Tajikistan as part of a surprise inspection of contingents of the Collective Rapid Reaction Force of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), conducted drills, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on May 15. They trained to "monitor the situation and conduct reconnaissance of approach routes to the main forces’ positions. The exercise was held at the Kharbmaidon range," the Ministry said. The drills involved CSTO contingents from Russia, Tajikistan, Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. The CSTO is a regional security group comprising the six above-mentioned countries.

More than 2,500 troops of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) states were involved in the military training event along with some 200 weapons systems and 20 combat aircraft. 30 military-transport aviation planes transported the personnel and military equipment to the exercise area and back. CSTO spokesman Vladimir Zainetdinov said at a press-conference held on May 18 that all the Collective Security Treaty Organization forces successfully carried out all the training missions assigned during the drill. It was the first time the Russian troops making up elements of CSTO Collective Rapid Reaction Force were transported by IL-76 transport aircraft. They used Arbalet-2 special parachutes.

The forces were initially deployed in Tajikistan on May 13-15 as a reaction to the exacerbation of the situation on the Tajik-Afghan border. The sound of ongoing battle had been heard for the whole week as Afghanistan security forces were fighting Taliban militants. Kabul said the 12 thousand servicemen were involved in the operation. The civil war in Afghanistan has approached the Tajikistan border. The fighting takes place in Imam Sahib District where the Taliban holds its position on the shore of Panj River.

Combat actions have been going on in Kunduz province for more than two weeks. Combat actions have resumed at least a hundred times as the security forces repelled the attacks of Taliban and the Islamic State. So far, there have been no attempts by militants to cross the border but their numbers keep on growing grow as they are pushed to the border while the fighting goes on. A Kunduz police official, Said Sarwar Hussaini, does not exclude a possibility of a joint operation with Tajikistan against the terrorists hidden in the woodland belt dividing the two states. Mohammad Omar Safi, the governor of Kunduz province, said many militants fighting the government troops come from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey and the North Caucasus. According to him, the militants of Pakistani Taliban also operate in the area. They have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. Some of the encircled militants belong to the groups Jamaat Ansorullo and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) trying to break through to Central Asia.

The situation is worsening in Afghanistan. The fighting is moving from south to north. The Taliban forces control about 80% of Badakhshan province located near the Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous region in eastern Tajikistan.

Afghanistan Interior Minister Nur ul-Haq Ulumi has said 11 out of 34 Afghan provinces were seriously threatened, while nine on them faced a lesser threat. Evidently all the Washington’s assurances about the stabilization of the situation in the country are groundless. The mission set 14 years ago before the US forces were deployed in Afghanistan has not been accomplished. No matter that, the operation Enduring Freedom has served as justification for bringing US troops near the borders of the Community of Independent States.

The United States concentrated on military operations ignoring the need to develop the Afghan economy. Afghanistan remains to be the poorest country in the world. Interethnic and interreligious strife has exacerbated. There is no unity within the ranks of political elite. The religious factor has become a driving force behind the armed struggle. In addition to that, Afghanistan has become the world leading poppy grower. According to the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime, in 2014 the country gathered the largest harvest ever. After the US forces came to the country the poppy production has increased 40-fold.

A grim picture emerged on May 12 when William Brownfield, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, released the results of the Afghanistan World Drug Use survey which revealed that one in nine Afghans are drug users. SGI Global led the team that conducted the survey, which spanned rural and urban districts of Afghanistan and was completed in 2014. Based on the survey – which was prepared as a cooperative effort between the Afghan ministries and the U.S. – three million Afghans are using drugs, and of these, 1.4 million are addicted to drugs.

Actually, the United States uses its presence in Afghanistan to exert pressure on other states, especially Russia and the neighboring Central Asia. In 2014 NATO transferred formal responsibility for the nation’s security to Afghan forces. Since then large formations of militants have moved to the border with Tajikistan. The leadership of Badakhshan has already complained about the neglectful attitude of central government towards the security needs of the province. If Kabul fails to take urgent measures the whole province will be under the control of armed opposition. There is a ground to believe that the scenario when the Islamic State captured a large chunk of Iraq’s territory may be repeated.

Dushanbe knows it well. It boosts security in the border areas. Foreigners are banned from visiting the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region. The Collective Security Treaty Organization is monitoring the situation ready to respond. Russia has deployed in the area MI-8 transport helicopters, some of them are gunship versions, as well as MI-24 gunship and attack rotary wing aircraft and Forpost unmanned aerial vehicles. The regional security and the situation in Afghanistan will be in focus of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The next meeting of the Committee of Security Secretaries from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will take place in the Tajik northern city of Khujand on May 20.